Tuesday, October 05, 2004

Jokes from the Amos Tversky Fan Club

A few weeks ago, I wrote a post about Lakoff, frames, heuristics (the emphasis was supposed to be on heuristics), and titled it "Karl Rove the Feminist Bankteller." I thought this was very clever at the time, but now I realize it was not only fairly unclever, but it was probably a bit too obscure. In my world, which is admittedly a very small one consisting of me and the other hard-core Amos Tversky fans, the reference, as the title of a post about cognitive heuristics, would be easy to recognize. Still, I don't know how many of you are hard-core Amos Tversky fans, or into behavioral economics in general. So, I decided that a quick explanation might be in order.

In a 1972 paper1, Tversky and Daniel Kahneman conducted an experiment using the following story:

Linda is 31 years old, single, outspoken, and very bright. She majored in philosophy. As a student, she was deeply concerned with issues of discrimination and social justice, and also participated in antinuclear demonstrations.

Participants were then asked to rank sentences by their probability. Among the sentences were the following:
(1) Linda is a bank teller.

(2) Linda is a bank teller and is active in the feminist movement.

As anyone familiar with probability can tell you, sentence (1)is more probably than sentence two, because the second involves a conjunction of (1) and another statement. However, participants almost always (86%) ranked (2) over (1), indicating that they thought it was more probable. This is the so-called "conjunction fallacy," and the standard explanation is that given her description, Linda is more representative of feminist banktellers than banktellers in general. When people refer to the conjunction fallacy, or the Kahneman and Tversky experiment, they often call the results the Linda the Feminist Bankteller problem/experiment.

So, I thought it would be clever to call Karl Rove a feminist bankteller in a post on cognitive heuristics (which is what the representative bias is), and how Republicans take advantage of them. I'm sure most of you caught that, but for those who don't get my twisted and unwitty sense of humor, now you see where the title came from.

1 Kahneman, D. and Tversky, A. (1972). Subjective probability: A judgment of representativeness. Cognitive Psychology, 3:430–454. See also Tversky, A. and Kahneman, D. (1983). Extension versus intuititve reasoning: The conjunction fallacy in probability judgment. Psychological Review, 90, 293-315 for a review of the various approaches to the Linda problem, and this paper for a shorter look at the research.


Anonymous said...

蘭花 台北旅遊 台北旅遊景點 台北民宿 坪林 坪林茶葉博物館 宜蘭民宿 木柵動物園 深坑老街 真情民宿 貓空 台北旅遊 台北民宿 坪林 坪林茶葉博物館 宜蘭民宿 木柵動物園 化糞池 抽化糞池 抽水肥 水管不通 洗水塔 消毒 通水管 通馬桶 馬桶 馬桶不通 上順旅行社 五福旅行社 大興旅行社 天喜旅行社 天福旅行社 日本旅行社 日本旅遊 日本機票 日本自由行 日本訂房 包通 抽化糞池 抽水肥 水管不通 洗水塔 清水溝 通水管 通馬桶 馬桶 馬桶不通 便宜機票 國內旅遊 國外旅遊 國外機票 團體旅遊 直航機票 簽證 自由行 訂房 雄獅旅遊 汽車美容 汽車美容 三久太陽能 太陽能 太陽能熱水器 三久 櫻花牌熱水器 熱水器 省電熱水器 衛浴設備 節能減碳 電熱水器

Anonymous said...

中古車 二手車 環保袋 環保袋 環保袋 十分瀑布 台北旅遊網 台北民宿 平溪 景觀餐廳 薰衣草花園 花園餐廳 螢火蟲 渡假村 鐵道之旅 團體服 滷味 滷味加盟 滷味批發 滷味食材 滷味宅配 滷雞翅 滷雞腳 健康滷味 魯味 加盟創業 慈善 義賣 義賣活動 慈善機構 公益彩券 健康食品 慈善基金會 公益團體 愛心捐款 捐款 美白 皺紋 減肥 禿 頭 醫學美容 電波拉皮 雷射溶脂 肉毒桿菌 玻尿酸 痘疤

Anonymous said...

租辦公室租店面買辦公室店面租賃店面出租店面出售花茶花草茶養生茶招牌led招牌招牌製作美國月子中心保養美國月子中心OBU投審會會計師事務所會計師工商登記公司登記包子肉粽宅配美食四神湯搬家公司訂房訂房網花東旅遊桃園土地桃園房屋仲介桃園房屋桃園房屋網桃園房屋買賣漆彈搬家公司會場設計展場設計會場設計展場設計展覽設計消防設備消防設備機電崴立機電消防公司地板施工超耐磨地板店面出租乳癌全身健康檢查肝癌健康檢查身體檢查飛梭雷射雷射溶脂直航機票自由行三久太陽能三久太陽能太陽能熱水器別墅外觀設計環保袋別墅外觀設計室內裝修電波拉皮hand dryer電波拉皮雷射溶脂肉毒桿菌系統家具台中漆彈場漆彈團體服美國月子中心團體服

Anonymous said...

Gucci shop
Gucci bags
Gucci shoes
wholesale gucci shoes
cheap Gucci handbags
Gucci ON sale
Gucci Belts
Gucci small accessories
Gucci hats & scarves
Gucci wallets
Gucci Handbags
Women Gucci shoes
Men Gucci shoes
discount gucci shoes
cheap Gucci shoes